MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY
UCLA Anderson Forecast report anticipates robust rebound by middle of 2021
The latest UCLA Anderson Forecast report anticipates two more quarters of slow growth — seasonally adjusted annual rates of 1.2% for the fourth quarter of 2020 and 1.8% for the first quarter of 2021 — before robust growth of 6% in the second quarter of 2021. After that, growth rates should remain above 3.0% well into 2023. The forecast expects the economy to reach its previous peak by the end of 2021 and the housing market remaining strong through at least 2023.
Initial unemployment claims rebound 19.1 percent to 853,000
In the week ending December 5, initial unemployment claims were 853,000, an increase of 137,000, or 19.1 percent, from the previous week’s revised level. Continued unemployment claims during the week ending November 28 were 5,757,000, an increase of 230,000, or 4.2 percent, from the previous week’s revised level. The total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending November 21 was 19,043,429, a decrease of 1,120,049, or 5.5 percent, from the previous week.
CPI up 0.2 percent in November and 1.2 percent year-on-year
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in November after being unchanged in October, and was up 1.2 percent year-on-year. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in November after being unchanged the prior month, and rose 1.6 percent year-on-year.
Multifamily developers tweaking future designs for more remote workforce
Multifamily industry participants are thinking critically about current remote working trends and how they may impact future strategy, yet there is a demonstrated aversion to over-correction considering the volatile and fluid nature of the current environment. There is clear expectation that the one-bedroom-plus-den format (1BR+den) will emerge as an increasingly attractive unit option. A rise in common-area workspace amenities and further growth in tenant demand for outdoor space, particularly balconies, are other key themes in the multifamily industry response to remote work trends.