MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY
October consumer confidence slips slightly due to rise in Covid-19 cases and job outlook weakening
Consumer confidence declined slightly in October (-0.4 points to 100.9), following a sharp improvement in September. Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved while expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in the short-term outlook for jobs. There is little to suggest that consumers foresee the economy gaining momentum in the final months of 2020, especially with COVID-19 cases on the rise and unemployment still high.
Home purchase loans edge up 0.2 percent from previous week and 24 percent year-on-year
The Market Composite Index increased 1.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, with purchase loans up 0.2 percent (and up 24 percent year-on-year) and refinance activity rising 3 percent (and up 80 percent year-on-year). The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.00 percent from 3.02 percent.
Share of mortgage loans in forbearance dips 2 points to 5.90 percent
The total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 5.92% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 5.90% as of October 18, 2020. According to MBA’s estimate, 3.0 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.
Case-Shiller Index up 1.0 percent in August and 5.7 percent year-on-year
‘The Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index reported a 5.7% annual gain in August, up from 4.8% in the previous month. The last time that the National Composite matched August’s 5.7% growth rate was 25 months ago, in July 2018. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.0%.
FHFA: House prices up 1.5 percent in August and 8.0 percent year-on-year
House prices rose nationwide in August, up 1.5 percent from the previous month, according to the latest Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index. House prices rose 8.0 percent from August 2019 to August 2020. For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly house price changes from July 2020 to August 2020 ranged from +0.9 percent in the East South Central division to +1.9 percent in the West South Central division. The 12-month changes ranged from +7.2 percent in the West North Central division to +9.7 percent in the Mountain division.