5/7: MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

Private sector jobs plummet by 20.2 million in April

ADP:  Private-sector employment decreased by 20,236,000 from March to April, on a seasonally adjusted basis.  This compares to a job loss of 149,000 in March and job gains of 196,000 in April 2019. Of this total job loss, 16 million were in services, and 4.2 million were in manufacturing.



Purchase mortgage loans rise 6 percent as rates fall to survey low

The Market Composite Index increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, with purchase loans rising 6 percent (but down 19 percent year-on-year) and refinance activity falling 2 percent (but up 210 percent year-on-year). The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.40 percent, a survey low.



March service sector economic index falls to lowest level since 2009

The service-sector Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) fell to 41.8 percent in April, its lowest point since March 2009 and 10.7 percentage points lower than the March reading of 52.5 percent.



About 50 percent of survey respondents think growth will improve over next six months

Gallup:  Although seven in 10 survey respondents continue to say the U.S. economy is in recession or worse (and is continuing to get worse), the six-month outlooks for economic growth and the stock market are relatively upbeat.
In the latter case, nearly half of those surveyed think growth and the stock market will improve over the next six month, while up to another ten percent think they will remain about the same.



Percent of mortgage loans in forbearance rises to 7.54 percent

The total number of loans now in forbearance increased from 6.99 percent of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 7.54 percent as of April 26, 2020. According to MBA’s estimate, a total of 3.80 million homeowners are now in forbearance plans.