11/19: MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

November builder confidence slips one point to 70

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes edged one point lower to 70 in November.  The past two months mark the highest sentiment levels in 2019.  The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell two points to 76, the one charting buyer traffic fell one point to 53, and the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months rose one point to 77.



October retail sales rebound 0.3 percent from September and 3.1 percent year-on-year

Although October’s overall retail sales rebounded 0.3 percent from September’s dip and were up 3.1 percent year-on-year, some categories saw month-over-month declines, suggesting a weaker holiday season.  These included clothing stores (-1.0 percent), furniture and home furnishings (-0.9 percent), sports goods/music stores (-0.8 percent) and building materials (-0.5 percent).



Industrial production fell 0.8 percent in October and down 1.1 percent year-on-year

Industrial production fell 0.8 percent in October after declining 0.3 percent in September, although much of the decline was due to the strike at GM.  At 108.7 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 1.1 percent lower in October than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.8 percentage point in October to 76.7 percent, a rate that is 3.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2018) average.